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| 个人信息 |
| 姓 名： |
潘译员 [编号]:1267 |
性 别： |
女 |
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| 擅长专业： |
旅游和语言 |
出生年月： |
1980/8/1 |
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| 民 族： |
汉族 |
所在地区： |
云南 昆明 |
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| 文化程度： |
硕士 |
所学专业： |
旅游和语言 |
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| 毕业时间： |
37782 |
毕业学校： |
云南师范大学 |
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| 第一外语： |
英语 |
等级水平： |
8 |
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| 口译等级： |
中级 |
工作经历： |
5 年 |
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| 翻译库信息 |
| 可翻译语种： |
英语 |
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| 目前所在地： |
云南 昆明 |
| 可提供服务类型： |
笔译、家教 |
| 每周可提供服务时间： |
晚上，周末! |
| 笔译案例信息 |
| 案例标题： |
国际金融与贸易体制 |
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| 原文： |
弗林德斯大学和南开大学
联合项目
文学硕士（ 国际贸易方向）
INTR9020（课程代码）: 国际金融与贸易体制
题目: 几次石油危机产生的原因及不同
学生姓名: 钟 锐
学生学号: 2066701
2008年7月15日
导论
石油危机是世界经济或各国经济受到石油价格的变化，所产生的经济危机。在工业领域，石油被称为“工业血液”，国际油价上升对多个行业产生重大影响，石油价格的上涨引发电力、煤炭、金属、建材、化纤、纺织、棉花、化肥、农药、涂料染料、纯碱、塑料等相关制造业原料价格上升。原料价格的上涨会进一步向下游传导，如石化产业、航空产业、汽车产业等行业成本增加，进而引发成品价格的上升，从而引发通货膨胀，最终导致经济危机的产生。今天，石油价格的涨落与国家政治、经济、生活、军事和外交紧密联在一起。
石油已经像血液一样维系着社会生活的运转、经济的发展甚至政治的稳定和国家的安全。
石油约占全世界能源消费总量的40%，是美欧日等经济大国的经济命脉。油价上升会造成许多公司成本增加，据估算，如果每桶原油的价格上升10美元并且持续1年，那么世界经济的年增率会减少0.5个百分点，而发展中国家经济的年增率会减少0.75个百分点。许世界石油资源的地区分布是不平衡的，多国际矛盾和冲突由此引发。从石油资源来看，到2003年底全球各地区已探明的石油储量分布为，中东地区探明储量995．8亿吨，占全球总探明储量的57.4%。主要集中在沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、科威特、伊拉克、阿曼、卡塔尔和叙利亚等国，这些国家的储量达849.3亿吨。该地区石油产量占世界总产量的30.4%。北面地区累计探明石油储量为297.6亿吨，占世界总探明储量的17.2%，其中，加拿大的储量为245亿吨，仅次于沙特阿拉伯，居世界第二位。在前苏联地区，独联体国家累计探明石油储量为106亿吨，占世界总探明储量的6.11%，其石油产量为4.9亿吨，占世界总产量的14.5%。其中俄罗斯石油产量已位居世界第二，仅次于沙特阿拉伯。此外，亚太地区探明石油储量52.4亿吨，占世界总产量的1.5%；非洲地区为110亿吨，占世界总储量的6.6%；南美地区探明石油储量134亿吨，占世界总探明储量的7.7%。1世界石油地区消费量与石油资源拥有量存在严重失衡现象，而石油资源在国家发展中有具有特殊的战略意义，因此全球围绕石油资源的争夺一直非常激烈。从近几十年来国际关系的现实可以看到，石油资源是国家间发生战争和冲突的主要因素，特别是谋求对石油资源的控制成为国际斗争的焦点之一。
一、造成前几次石油危机的原动力是什么？
目前，世界公认的前几次石油危机共有三次：
第一次危机（1973年）：1973年10月第四次中东战争爆发，为打击以色列及其支持者，石油输出国组织（1960年12月石油输出国组织[OPEC]成立，主要成员包括伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和南美洲的委内瑞拉等国）的阿拉伯成员国当年12月宣布收回石油标价权，并将石油价格从每桶3.011美元提高到10.651美元，使油价猛然上涨了两倍多，从而触发了第二次世界大战之后最严重的全球经济危机。持续三年的石油危机对发达国家的经济造成了严重的冲击。在这场危机中，美国的工业生产下降了14%，日本的工业生产下降了20%以上，所有的工业化国家的经济增长都明显放慢。
第二次危机（1978年）：1978年底，世界第二大石油出口国伊朗的政局发生剧烈变化，伊朗亲美的温和派国王巴列维下台，引发第二次石油危机。此时又爆发了两伊战争，全球石油产量受到影响，从每天580万桶骤降到100万桶以下。随着产量的剧减，油价在1979年开始暴涨，从每桶13美元猛增至1980年的34美元。这种状态持续了半年多，此次危机成为上世纪70年代末西方经济全面衰退的一个主要原因。
第三次危机（1990年）：1990年8月初伊拉克攻占科威特以后，伊拉克遭受国际经济制裁，使得伊拉克的原油供应中断，国际油价因而急升至42美元的高点。美国、英国经济加速陷入衰退，全球GDP增长率在1991年跌破2%。2国际能源机构启动了紧急计划，每天将250万桶的储备原油投放市场，以沙特阿拉伯为首的石油输出国组织（欧佩克）也迅速增加产量，很快稳定了世界石油价格。随后，国际能源机构启动了紧急计划，每天将250万桶的储备原油投放市场，油价一天之内暴跌10多美元，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）也迅速增产。因此，这次高油价持续时间并不长，与前两次危机相比，对世界经济的影响要小得多。
此外，2003年国际油价也曾暴涨过，原因是以色列与巴勒斯坦发生暴力冲突，中东局势紧张，2003年美国对伊拉克动武，造成油价暴涨。
从以上原因分析，造成前几次石油危机的原动力是因为地缘政治紧张，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）供给骤减，原油供应突发性大幅减少或中断，促使市场陷入供需失调的危机中。也就是说三次石油危机期间油价疯狂上涨基本上是非市场因素。
二、我们遇到的此次石油危机的原因又是什么，这些与以前的几次有什么不同？
我们遇到的此次石油危机的原因非常复杂。今年以来，1月2日 纽约市场原油期货价格在历史上首度突破每桶100美元大关。5月21日 纽约商品交易所7月份交货的轻质原油期货价格大幅攀升并突破每桶130美元大关，收于每桶133.17美元。6月30日 纽约市场油价在开盘前电子交易中突破每桶143美元，再次刷新历史最高纪录。一般而言，决定国际原油价格的因素有以下几点：第一，世界经济对原油的依赖性（不可或缺和难以替代）与原油储量和产量的限制，使原油价格对影响供求两方面的因素十分敏感，且波动性较大。第二，原油供求结构的失衡使原油的供求关系趋于紧张，从储量、生产、运输、炼油到销售的每一个环节都十分重要，其中任何一个环节的因素发生变化都会影响到原油价格的波动。第三，尽管原油供求大致相当，但供给和需求方面的任何一个变量或影响到供给和需求方面的相关变量，往往在一定时间内决定着价格的走势。如战争、恐怖袭击、石油工人罢工以及其他突发事件等不确定性因素严重影响甚至左右油价走势。第四，通常情况下，经济衰退时期原油库存的下降对油价支撑作用不大，原油库存的增加对油价则有较大的破坏作用；而在经济复苏和繁荣阶段，原油库存的增加对油价有平抑作用，但原油库存下降则会极大地支撑油价上涨。第五，在经济衰退，原油需求减少，价格下跌时，产油国减产措施往往难以起到抑制油价下跌的作用，增产将加速油价下跌；而在经济复苏，原油需求增加，油价上升时，增产对平抑油价上涨作用有限，减产则会明显加剧价格上涨。第六，原油市场的投机与市场预期往往加大了原油价格的波动，国际原油市场中投机因素对原油价格有着10%-20%的影响力。但是，这次石油危机和此前的危机不尽相同，之前的石油危机多源于中东地区爆发冲突，造成供给严重不足，致使石油价格暴涨。而导致近期国际油价不断上涨的原因非常复杂，包括供需平衡相对脆弱、美国次贷危机及美元走软、投资基金炒作、地缘政治紧张、石油生产国和消费国认识差别和自然灾害等因素。
第一，国际市场供需脆弱，世界经济增长带动原油需求增加。任何货物的价格都由供给和需求两大因素决定，而供给往往是第一因素。目前，世界石油剩余产能不足，尤其是石油输出国组织(欧佩克)调节国际油价的能力下降。 欧佩克国家的产能利用率已由1993年的90%提高到目前的100%上下，这严重制约了该组织通过增产平抑油价的功能。 其次，炼油产能不足，这一方面是由于以往在炼油上的投入不够，而新的炼油厂投入使用尚需时日。与此同时，由于世界经济增速加快，原油需求不断上升。美、日、韩等经济发达国家用油需求不减，中、印等新兴国家对石油的需求快速增长，使整个石油市场形成供小于求的不平衡局面。
第二，美国次贷危机及美元持续走软是近期油价暴涨的最主要原因。去年美国次贷危机全面爆发后，美国政府采取持续的降息政策导致全球流动性更加泛滥，大批热钱为了规避风险转而投向商品市场，尤其是原油期货市场。而油价的上涨又加重了全球范围内的通胀，不少资金转而借助原油期货实现投资保值，这便形成了石油和通胀解不开的“死亡螺旋”。美元这一主要货币贬值,降低了美元资产的吸引力,削弱了石油输出国组织收入的购买力,并增强了美国以外消费者购买力,刺激了包括原油在内的全面商品买盘。由于国际石油价格一直都是以美元来衡量的,美元贬值自然带来石油价格增加。
第三，以对冲基金为首的国际游资炒作。来自中国商务部的统计显示，去年以来，有8500多家基金的9000亿美元资金利用各种题材炒作石油价格。这些资金源源不断地涌入包括石油在内的商品市场,推动了石油价格的上涨。同时,投资银行鼓吹油价将继续超级暴涨也令油价涨 势惊人。在这一轮新的油价飙升中，对冲基金的参与加剧了市场波动。
第四，伊朗、尼日利亚等地缘政治紧张。伊朗是全球第4大石油输出国,该国因其核计划而与西方特别是美国不和，其经济贸易受西方国家封锁,市场担心石油供应受阻。尼日利亚是全球第八大石油输出国,但受国内武装分子的破坏,石油的出口量有所减少,石油供应也一度中断。
第五，石油生产国和消费国认识差别。石油输出国组织(欧佩克)认为石油供应已充裕，拒绝增产。多国石油部长表示,目前的石油价是合理的,市场上原油供应充足,没有必要增加产量以降低油价。
第六，进年来世界各国自然灾害发生频繁。如：印尼大海啸、柬埔寨热带风暴、中国汶川大地震、美国龙卷风、东京地震、全球范围的水灾等。自然灾害发生后，要恢复社会的经济秩序首先要恢复必要的基础设施。于是，新一轮的基础设施建设项目大量上马，这将消耗大量的建筑材料，进而增加对石油的需求量。
从上面分析看出，我们遇到的此次石油危机的原因非常复杂。这次危机原因与以前有明显的不同，前三次石油危机具有共同的特征，均是受地缘政治的影响，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）供给骤减，原油供应突发性大幅减少或中断，促使市场陷入供需失调的危机中。前三次石油危机期间世界经济停滞、物价飞涨、股市下跌，对全球经济造成严重冲击。也就是说三次石油危机期间油价疯狂上涨基本上是非市场因素。而当前我们遇到的此次石油危机的原因较为复杂，并非单一因素造成，其成因包括供需平衡相对脆弱、美国次贷危机及美元走软、投资基金炒作、地缘政治紧张、石油生产国和消费国认识差别和自然灾害等因素。当前，石油价格的上涨已成为世界性通胀的主要原因之一，在相当程度上影响到世界经济的发展和某些国家经济、金融的稳定。但从当前全球经济、物价、股市等来看，它们均在可控状态。因此，石油危机成因的复杂性决定了破解困局不可能只由单方面来完成。只有各方携手采取综合应对措施，才能维持国际石油市场的稳定，确保世界经济不会因当前的石油危机问题而脱离持续稳定增长的轨道。
参考文献：
【1】 刘拓，刘毅军著：石油金融知识 中国经济出版社
【2】 （美）古德斯坦著，王乃粒译：石油危机 湖南科技
出版社
【3】 浩君编著：石油效应 企业管理出版社
【4】 当代经济与政治 华文出版社
【5】 环球时报 2007年 若干期
【6】 （德）恩道尔著，赵刚等译： 石油战争 知识产权出版社
【7】 辛乔利，孙兆东著： 次贷危机 中国经济出版社
【8】 http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/52263980.html
【9】 http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/58591789.html
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| 译文： |
The United Project of The Flinders university and Nankai University
Master of Arts (international trade direction)
INTR9020 (curriculum code): International finance and trade system
topic: The Reason and Difference of The Happening of The Several petroleum crises
Student’s name: ZHONGRUI
Student’s number: 2066701
July 15, 2008
Introductory remarks
The petroleum crisis is the economic crisis caused by the influence of the change of the petroleum price on the world economy or different countries’ economy. In the industrial domain, the petroleum is called “the industrial blood”, the international oil price rise has the significant influence to many professions, and it has caused the increase of the price of the raw material of the relative manufacturing industries . The industries include power station, coal, metal, building materials, chemical and fiber, spinning and weaving, cotton, chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemical, coating dye, alkali , plastic, etc. the increase of the material price can further influence the downstream industries such as petrified industry, aviation industry, automobile industry, and at last it will cause the price rise of the product and the inflation which leads to the economic crisis. Today the up and down of the price of the petroleum are closely related with the national politics, economy, life, military and diplomatic. The petroleum has been the blood to maintain the running of the social life, the development of the economy and even the stability of the politics and the national security.
The petroleum accounts for about 40% in the world energy sources consumption gross and it is the life line of the economy in America, Eropean countries, Japan and many other big countries. The increase of the petroleum price will cause the increase of the cost of many companies.
according to estimate if the price of each barrel of crude oil rises 10 US dollars to continue for 1 year, then the annual increase ratio of the world economy will
reduce 0.5 percentage, but in the developing nations the ratio will reduce 0.75 percentage. The distribution of the world oil resources is not balanced, many international contradictions and the conflict is initiated from this. Looking from the oil resource, to the end of 2003 the distribution of the proved up petroleum reserve is like this: 99.58 brillion tons in the Middle East accounting for 57.4% of the global proved up reserve. The mainly distribution is in the countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, Aman, Qatar Syria, etc. And the reserves reach 84.93 billion tons in these countries accounting for 30.4% of the world general output. The accumulated total reserves in the Northern area is 29.76 billion tons accounting for 17.2% of the world total proven reserves,and among them the reserves of Canada is 24.5 billion tons, which is only inferior to the Saudi Arabian, taking the second place in the world.In the former Soviet Union area, the accumulated total reserves in Commonwealth of Independent States is 10.6billion tons, accounting for 6.11% of the world total proven reserves, and about the output of the petroleum Russia has taken the second place in the world ,which is only inferior to the Saudi Arab. In addition, the total proven reserves in the Asian and Pacific areas is 5.2 billion tons, accounting for 1.5% in the world general output; in African area is 11 billion tons, accounting for the 6.6% in the world general output; in the South America area is 1.34 billion tons, accounting for 7.7% in the world general output.There exists the serious unbalanced phenomenon between the petroleum consumption and the petroleum reserves , but the petroleum has the special strategic meaning to the development of countries, so the contest surrounding the petroleum resource has been always serious. From the reality of the international relationship in the several decades we can see that the petroleum resource is the main factor of the war and conflict in the countries. Especially trying to control the resource becomes one of the focus of the international contest.
Firstly, what is the prime mover of the previous petroleum crisis？
At present, the universally accepted petroleum crisis is totally 3 times：
The first crisis (in 1973): In October, 1973，the fourth Middle East war erupted,in order to attack Israel and the supporter, The Arabian countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (in December, 1960, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] was established, the main member countries include Iran, Iraqi, Kuwait, Saudi Arab , Venezuela in South America and so on) declared to take back the right of marking the price of he petroleum in December at the same year and raised the price from $3.011 per barrel to $10.651 per barrel which caused the price to rise more than two times suddenly. Thus the most serious global economic crisis after the World War II happened. The petroleum crisis which continued for three years brought the serious impact to the economy of the developed countries . In this crisis , the industrial production in the USA declined for 14%, in Japan for more than 20% and the economic growth in the all industrial countries was slowed down apparently.
The second crisis (in 1978): at the end of 1978, the second biggest petroleum exporting country Iran's political situation had the fierce change that Iranian pro-US moderate King Baliewei left office, causing the second oil crisis. At the same time the Iran and Iraq war erupted, which caused the global petroleum output dropt from 5.8 million barrel each day to below 1 million barrel each day . Whith the severe reduction of the output, the petroleum price started to rise sharply from $13 to $34 in 1980. The state continued for more than half a year and the crisis became the main reason for the economy of western countries to decline.
The third crisis (in 1990): after at the beginning of August, 1990, after Iraq attacked and occupied Kuwait, Iraq suffered the international economic sanction, causing Iraq's crude oil supply to halt and the international petroleum price to rise to the high point of $42. The economy of America and Britain slumped quickly and the global GDP fell to under 2% in 1991. 2 International Energy Agency started the emergency plan, which was to put in 2.5million barrel of reserve crude oil into the market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which was led by Saudi Arab also increased the output quickly, and soon the world petroleum price was stabilized. Afterward, the International Energy Agency started the emergency plan which was to put in 2.5million barrel of reserve crude oil to the market, within one day the oil price fell for more than $10, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also rapidly increased production. Therefore, the duration of this high oil price was not long, and it had less serious effect on the world economy compared with the previous two crises.
In addition, in 2003, the international oil price once also risen suddenly, the reason was that Israel and Palestine had the violent conflict which caused the situation in the Middle East severe, and in 2003 the US resorted to violence to Iraq.
According to the above analysis, the prime mover of the previous petroleum crisis was that the geopolitics was intense, the supply of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was reduced suddenly and the supply of the crude oil was reduced or halted suddenly, so the market was forced into the crisis of the maladjustment of the supply and demand. That is to say the rise of the price in the third crisis was caused by non-market factor
Secondly, what is the reason of the petroleum crisis we are encountering and what is the difference with the previous ones? The reason of the petroleum crisis we are encountering is very complicated. On January 2 this year, the price of the crude oil futures in the New York market broke through $100 each barrel for the first time in the history. On May 21,in New York commodity exchange, the price of the light crude futures delivered in July rose greatly and broke through $130 and was closed at $133.17 each barrel. On June 30,the price of the petroleum in New York market broke through $143 each barrel in the electronic transaction before open quotation and broke the historical highest record again. Generally speaking, the factors which decide the price of the crude oil are the following ones :Firstly, the dependence of the world economy on the crude oil (indispensable and with difficulty substitution) and the restriction of the crude oil reserves and production make the crude oil price sensitive to the two factors :supply and requirement. Secondly, the unbalance of the structure of the supply and demand of the crude oil leads the relationship of the supply and requirement intense, and from reserves, production ,transportation, and refining to sale , every sector is very important, and the change of the factor of any sector will cause the fluctuation of the price of the crude oil. Thirdly, although the supply and demand of the crude oil approximately the same , any variable of the supply and demand or the relative variable which will influence the supply and demand always decides the trend of the price at certain time. For example, the war, terror attack, the strike of the petroleum workers and many other uncertain factors will influence the price or even decide the price trend. Fourthly , usually the descending of the storage of the crude oil can’t support the oil price efficiently in the economic depression and the increase of the storage of the crude oil has strong destroying usage to the price. But in the economic resurgence phase and the flourishing phase, the increase of the storage of the crude oil will balance the price , and the descending of the storage of the crude oil will support the increase of the oil price enormously. Fifthly, in the period of the economic depression, with the decrease of the demand of the crude oil and the fall of the price, the measure of the reduction of the output of the crude oil can’t restrain the fall of the price and the increase of the production will accelerate the fall of the price. in the economic resurgence phase, with the increase of the demand and the price, the increase of the output can’t balance the price efficiently and the reduction of the output will urge the rise of the price obviously. Sixthly, the venture of the crude oil market and the market anticipation always increase the fluctuation of the price of the crude oil, and the percentage of the influence of the venture factor in the international crude oil market upon the price of the crude oil is between 10% and 20%. But the present petroleum crisis is different from the previous ones, most of which were originated from the outbreaks resulting the insufficiency of the supply and the rise of the price. The reasons of the present petroleum crisis we are encountering is very complicated and they include the relative fragility of the balance of the supply and the demand, the sub-prime loan crisis in the USA, the depreciation of the US dollars ,the intensity of the geopolitics, the cognition difference between the oil production countries and the oil consuming countries, the natural disasters, etc.
Firstly, the supply and demand in the international market is frail, and the world economic growth leads the demand of the crude oil to increase. The price of any goods is decided by the two factors, namely the supplies and the demand, but the supply is always the first factor. At present, the capability of the world to have the oil surplus is insufficient, especially the ability of adjusting the international oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is weakened. In the OPEC countries, the rate of making use of the ability of the production has been improved to about 100% at present from 90% in 1993, which severely restrict the function of the organization to balance the price by increasing the production. The another problem is that the capability of the production of the oil refining is insufficient, which is caused by the limited input in the oil refining in the past years and the long time needed to wait for the use of the new factories of the oil refining. At the same time, the demand of the crude oil continued to increase because of the rapid development of the world economy. The demand of the oil of the developed countries including the USA, Japan, Korea, etc. is not reduced, and the demand of the oil in the developing countries including China, India, etc. increases rapidly. So the unbalanced situation formed in the oil market , which is that the supply is less than demand.
Secondly, the sub-prime loan crisis in the USA and the depreciation of the US dollars are the most important reason why the oil price is increasing so rapidly at present. After the sub-prime loan crisis in the USA erupted completely last year, the policy of reducing the interest carried out by the USA worsened the global fluidity, and a large amount of hot money flooded into the commodity market especially the futures market of the crude oil in order to avoid the risk. And the increase of the oil price make the global inflation worse, and a lot of money realize the investment and the value-keeping by the futures of the crude oil, which led the formation of the deadly spiral that is the oil and the inflation can’t be divided. The devaluation of the US dollar which is the main currency reduced the appeal of the asset of the US dollar, weakened the purchasing power of the income earned by the OPEC, enhanced the purchasing power of the consumers outside the USA and stimulated the price of all the goods including the crude oil to increase. Because the international price of the oil is always weighed by the US dollar, the depreciation of the US dollar naturally caused the oil price to increase.
Thirdly, it is the boosting of the international idle fund led by the fund. The statistics given by the department of the business affairs implicates that $900 billion coming from more than 8500 funds boost the oil price using all kinds of themes. The capital flooded into the commodity market including the oil market and impeled the increase of the price. At the same time the investment bank advocated that the oil price would continue to increase sharply, and it also caused that the price had the surprising trend of increase. In the new round of the increase of the price, the participation of the fund enhanced the fluctuation of the market.
Fourthly, it is the severe situation of the geopolitics in Iran, Nigeria and so on. Iran is the 4th biggest petroleum exporting country. Because of its nuclear program, Iran has bad relation with the western countries, especially the USA, and its economy is blocked off by the western countries, so there is the worry about the barrier brought to the oil supply in the market. Nigeria is the eighth biggest petroleum exporting country, but because of the domestic armed force s’ destruction, the volume of the exported petroleum was reduced, and the supply of the oil was once interrupted.
Fifthly, it is the difference of the cognition between the oil producing countries and the oil consuming countries. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) thought that the petroleum supply has been abundant and refuses to increase production. The ministers of the department of oil coming from many countries expressed that the price is reasonable and the supply of the crude oil was sufficient, so it was unnecessary to increase the output to reduce the price.
Sixthly, that is the frequent natural disasters in all the countries in the world for example, Indonesian big Tsunami, Cambodia tropical storm, Chinese Wenchuan big earthquake, American tornado, Tokyo earthquake, global scale flood and so on. After the natural disaster occurs, to resume the social economic order is to resume the necessary infrastructure at first. Thus a lot of building programs were started in the new round of building of the infrastructure, which will consume lots of building material and increase the demand of the oil.
The above analysis shows that the oil crisis we are encountering is very complicated. The reason of the present crisis is different obviously with the last ones. There are the common characteristics in the last three crises: the influence of the geopolitics, the reduction of the oil supply of the OPEC, and the massive reduction and the interruption of the supply of the crude oil , which urged the market to slump into the crisis of the unbalance of the supply and the demand. In the period of the last three crises, the world economic stagnancy, the increase of the price and the fall of the stock market struck the world economy severely. That is to say that in the last three crises the increase of the price wasn’t decided by the factor of the market. But the reason of the present crisis we are encountering is very complicated and is not caused by only one factor. The reasons include the relative fragility of the balance of the supply and the demand, the US sub-prime loan crisis and the depreciation of the US dollar, boosting of the fund, intense geopolitics, the difference of the cognition between the oil producing countries and the oil consuming countries , the natural disasters, etc. At present, the increase of the oil price has been the one of the main reasons causing the global inflation, which influences the development of the world economy and the stability of the economy and the finance in certain countries to a large degree. But seen from the word economy, price, stock market, etc. , They are all in the controllable situation . Consequently, the complexity of the formation of the oil crisis decides that It is impossible to conquer the difficulty from the unilateral part. As long as the multi-lateral parts take the comprehensive measures, we can keep the stability of the international oil market and ensure that the world economy won’t be taken away from the orbit of continuing stable growth because of the present oil crisis.
Reference:
[1] Liu develops, Liu Yi armed forces: Petroleum finance knowledge Chinese Economical Publishing house
[2] (US) gourde Stan, Wang Naili is translating: Oil shock Hunan science and technology publishing house
[3] Vast Mr. writes: Petroleum effect Business management publishing house
[4] Contemporary economy and politics Chinese publishing house
[5] Round the world Times in 2007 certain issues
[6] (Germany) graciousness Dower, Zhao Gang and so on was translating: Oil war Intellectual property rights publishing house
[7] Xin Joly, Sun Zhaodong: Loan crisis Chinese Economical Publishing house
[8] http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/52263980.html
[9] http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/58591789.html
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